Category Archives: banking
Economy Not Sheltering in Place
The economy isn’t sheltering in place. It’s heading down. Fast.
Goldman Sachs forecasts 15% unemployment and a 34% decline in GDP in the second quarter. And the stock market just finished its worst quarter since 2008.
Goldman Sachs is still predicting a “V-shape” recovery, however, meaning the steep drop-off will lead to a bigger bounce of 19 percent in the third quarter.
The Hill
Economy Not Sheltering
The election is seven months away. Can Trump pull the economy out of its Corona nose dive by then?
Scott Brennan, an Iowa Democratic National Committee member and a former state party chairman, said, “If the economy pops back … it’s hard to know what people are going to think.”
Politico
Two Trillion Dollar Stimulus Brings Back Bull, For Now
The Senate passed a two trillion dollar stimulus bill Wednesday night. And the Dow lurched forward 6.4% on Thursday. And that followed an 11% bump from the day before. But the 401k party was over by Friday and it was still down over 20% for the year.
Cure Worse than Disease?
Is the cure worse than the disease? The war against the Covid-19 virus is destroying businesses and jobs. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial titled Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown thinks maybe so:
In a normal recession the U.S. loses about 5% of national output over the course of a year or so. In this case we may lose that much, or twice as much, in a month.
Our friend Ed Hyman, the Wall Street economist, on Thursday adjusted his estimate for the second quarter to an annual rate loss in GDP of minus-20%. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s assertion on Fox Business Thursday that the economy will power through all this is happy talk if this continues for much longer…
And David Katz, the founding director of the Yale- Griffin prevention research Center, wrote in the New York Times
I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself.
…A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible. With each passing day, however, it becomes more difficult. The path we are on may well lead to uncontained viral contagion and monumental collateral damage to our society and economy. A more surgical approach is what we need.
Feds Plan to Make Everyone Flush
Not Just First Woman of Color Anymore
Click image to enlarge
Before she was the first woman of color at Harvard Law School, Elizabeth Warren was a school teacher. But then she got pregnant and the principal “showed her the door.” At least that’s how she tells it. But that’s not what happened. She quit. Her contract was extended that spring but Elizabeth decided to go another way. And the board accepted her resignation with regret.
Much More Than First Woman of Color
She went back to school, earned a law degree, became a bankruptcy expert, helped found the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and went on to regulate big banks.
