Shy Trump Voters Not so Mythical After all

 

Shy Trump voters proved to be more than a myth.

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There’s no such thing as a shy Trump voter

The Washington Post

That was The Washington Post one day before the election.

The polling crisis is a catastrophe for American Democracy

The Atlantic

And that would be The Atlantic one day after the election.

Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done

Frank Luntz

Frank Luntz five days before the election.

The polling industry and the mainstream media has “never been as wrong as it was” in the 2020 presidential election

Frank Luntz

And that’s Frank Luntz two days after the election.

Why have pollsters blown two presidential elections in a row?The problem seems to be pollsters can’t get a straight answer from some Trump voters. And for good reason:

If all you hear day in and day out that Trump is an evil, racist monster, then it’s going to make it less likely you admit to supporting him, including to pollsters.

The effect of ‘shy’ voters is known among pollsters as ‘social desirability bias’, as Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight explained in an article ahead of the election explaining why Trump could still win.

Daily Mail

 

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